Rudy's in Trouble

This story in today's New York Times nicely chronicles Rudy's recent travails and his now firmly February 5th-based campaign strategy. The article confirms that Rudy is basically ditching New Hampshire and is looking to the vote in Florida (on January 29) for his first win.

Though I'm currently a Rudy supporter, I have to say that I think his course to the nomination has become much more difficult since he has dropped out of contention in New Hampshire. Briefly, I believe that in order for Rudy to be viable on Feb. 5:

1. Huckabee must win Iowa.

2. Romney and McCain must fight a close contest for first in New Hampshire, thus denying Romney a solid victory in either of the first two contests.

3. Rudy must win in Michigan on Jan. 15 --not just "do well" in Michigan as Rudy's advisors told the Times-- and in Florida two weeks later.

Considering the continuingly fractured nature of GOP race, the first two events listed above might well happen. However, I think a victory in Michigan, where Romney and McCain will both likely be quite strong, will be a tall order indeed.

Rudy Cutting Back in NH; Not So Good

From a Politico update from New Hampshire:

Yesterday, Giuliani made a symbolic statement that he and his campaign think their path to victory lies not in the early January snows of New Hampshire but in sunny Florida, which holds its primary in late January.

I'm increasingly convinced that this race, or at least the sub-race to be the anti-Huckabee, will be over before Florida.